Embeddings from protein language models predict conservation and variant effects.

The emergence of SARS-CoV-2 variants stressed the demand for tools allowing to interpret the effect of single amino acid variants (SAVs) on protein function. While Deep Mutational Scanning (DMS) sets continue to expand our understanding of the mutational landscape of single proteins, the results continue to challenge analyses. Protein Language Models (pLMs) use the latest deep learning (DL) algorithms to leverage growing databases of protein sequences. These methods learn to predict missing or masked amino acids from the context of entire sequence regions. Here, we used pLM representations (embeddings) to predict sequence conservation and SAV effects without multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). Embeddings alone predicted residue conservation almost as accurately from single sequences as ConSeq using MSAs (two-state Matthews Correlation Coefficient-MCC-for ProtT5 embeddings of 0.596 ± 0.006 vs. 0.608 ± 0.006 for ConSeq). Inputting the conservation prediction along with BLOSUM62 substitution scores and pLM mask reconstruction probabilities into a simplistic logistic regression (LR) ensemble for Variant Effect Score Prediction without Alignments (VESPA) predicted SAV effect magnitude without any optimization on DMS data. Comparing predictions for a standard set of 39 DMS experiments to other methods (incl. ESM-1v, DeepSequence, and GEMME) revealed our approach as competitive with the state-of-the-art (SOTA) methods using MSA input. No method outperformed all others, neither consistently nor statistically significantly, independently of the performance measure applied (Spearman and Pearson correlation). Finally, we investigated binary effect predictions on DMS experiments for four human proteins. Overall, embedding-based methods have become competitive with methods relying on MSAs for SAV effect prediction at a fraction of the costs in computing/energy. Our method predicted SAV effects for the entire human proteome (~ 20 k proteins) within 40 min on one Nvidia Quadro RTX 8000. All methods and data sets are freely available for local and online execution through bioembeddings.com, https://github.com/Rostlab/VESPA , and PredictProtein.

SARS-CoV-2 structural coverage map reveals viral protein assembly, mimicry, and hijacking mechanisms.

We modeled 3D structures of all SARS-CoV-2 proteins, generating 2,060 models that span 69% of the viral proteome and provide details not available elsewhere. We found that ˜6% of the proteome mimicked human proteins, while ˜7% was implicated in hijacking mechanisms that reverse post-translational modifications, block host translation, and disable host defenses; a further ˜29% self-assembled into heteromeric states that provided insight into how the viral replication and translation complex forms. To make these 3D models more accessible, we devised a structural coverage map, a novel visualization method to show what is-and is not-known about the 3D structure of the viral proteome. We integrated the coverage map into an accompanying online resource (https://aquaria.ws/covid) that can be used to find and explore models corresponding to the 79 structural states identified in this work. The resulting Aquaria-COVID resource helps scientists use emerging structural data to understand the mechanisms underlying coronavirus infection and draws attention to the 31% of the viral proteome that remains structurally unknown or dark.